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FRISCO, Texas -- As the Dallas Cowboys wind down their preparation for Saturday’s wild-card matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, it is appropriate to remember the only other time these franchises met in the playoffs and how a matter of seconds can change everything.
Maybe it is not funny ha-ha, but funny in that so many things could be remembered so differently.
Jan. 6, 2007, was a pivotal day in the history of the Cowboys. It has not necessarily scarred the franchise, but it led to so many what-ifs.
On that night in Seattle, everything was ahead of the Cowboys. They had a future Hall of Fame coach. They found their franchise quarterback seven games into the season. They had a future Hall of Fame wide receiver. They had a future Hall of Fame tight end. They had a young defense with a future Hall of Fame pass-rusher.
With 1 minute, 19 seconds to play, Martin Gramatica came on for a 19-yard field-goal attempt that would have given the Cowboys a 23-21 lead against the Seahawks.
Everybody knows what happened: Tony Romo dropped the snap, scrambled toward the end zone and was stopped for no gain. The Cowboys lost 21-20. Devastation was felt in every corner of the locker room.
But what if Romo doesn’t bobble the hold, Gramatica makes the kick and the Cowboys win?
Romo’s legacy would be so much different. He would have had a playoff victory in his first try against the defending NFC champion.
Every year since the snap, the play is shown over and over. It's the agony-of-defeat memory of the Jerry Jones era, the way Jackie Smith’s drop in Super Bowl XIII is the agony-of-defeat memory of the Tom Landry era.
It doesn't matter that Romo went on to become the franchise leader in passing yards and touchdowns. It doesn’t matter that he won more than he lost, that he played hurt more than he should have, that he carried teams to wins.
Ron Jenkins/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/MCT via Getty Images
The snap is remembered most.
“That offseason, Tony called me like three, four times about it and we ended being at the Pro Bowl and one night for about 20 minutes, we sat down, and he apologized,” said L.P. Ladouceur, the Cowboys' long-snapper then and the only player remaining from that game on the Dallas roster today. “You could tell he cared so much about it. ... He’s so much more than that. He played for another 10 years after that and he played at a really high level. Sometimes little snags, little bumps in the road can create a lot more, right?”
The Seattle loss was the final game Bill Parcells coached. As he sat on the flight home from that game, he knew he was done, unable to summon the strength to go through the process of getting a team ready for a season even though the Cowboys had all of the pieces to be a contender.
Parcells has long thought if the Cowboys had beaten Seattle, they would have gone on to beat the Chicago Bears, quarterbacked by Rex Grossman, in the divisional round. An NFC Championship Game against the New Orleans Saints would have been difficult, especially after Sean Payton’s team whipped the Cowboys 42-17 in the regular season, but this was Parcells and a staff filled with future head coaches, so anything was possible.
Even if the Cowboys had not reached the Super Bowl, would a playoff run have convinced Parcells to come back for another season?
The 2007 Cowboys finished 13-3 under Parcells’ replacement, Wade Phillips. They had the best record in the NFC but lost in the divisional round to the New York Giants. Perhaps the Cowboys would not have been as successful in the regular season under the grind of Parcells, but they surely would not have treated the bye week of the playoffs as vacation time. And we’re talking more than Romo, Jason Witten and Bobby Carpenter going to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
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In the years Romo was the starter, the collection of talent in 2007 was the Cowboys' best. They had 13 Pro Bowlers: Flozell Adams, Marion Barber, Leonard Davis, Greg Ellis, Nick Folk, Andre Gurode, Ken Hamlin, Terence Newman, Terrell Owens, Romo, DeMarcus Ware, Roy Williams and Witten.
Parcells made the Hall of Fame without a third Super Bowl and his legacy is firmly cemented as one of the game’s greatest coaches, but another championship with a different franchise would have separated him from other greats.
And how would a third Super Bowl reflect on Jones? He has been starving for a Super Bowl since 1995. To many, the Super Bowls of the 1990s were a reflection on Jimmy Johnson. Jones took a gamble when he hired Parcells in 2003, in part to get a new stadium built in Arlington, Texas, and in part to restore a franchise that had fallen on hard times with three consecutive 5-11 finishes.
Jones was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2017 without a fourth Super Bowl, but certainly another championship would have taken away the criticisms of the post-Johnson seasons.
This is what the 2018 Cowboys are about to walk into Saturday night.
A lot of them have a taste of the frustration from the 2016 divisional-round loss to the Green Bay Packers. Some of them figured that 13-3 season was undoubtedly the beginning of an eventual run to a Super Bowl, but they missed the playoffs in 2017 and were 3-5 at the midway point of this season.
“It’s hard to make the playoffs in the NFL, so I mean, that’s what makes the moment that much more important,” Ezekiel Elliott said.
It’s even harder to win in the playoffs.
The 2006 Cowboys found that out in the cruelest of ways.
Pete Carroll knows what it’s like to be told “You aren’t cutting it here” and needing to find a different avenue towards greatness. Though he’s had countless “stop and go” moments in his life, perhaps the most notable was after Carroll was fired as head coach of the New England Patriotsin 2000. After a year off from coaching, Carroll emerged as the new guy in charge at USC, his first job below the pro level since 1983. Even at that, Carroll was not the Trojans’ first choice, but after some other candidates turned them down, he was the best man standing.
Coming off of a 5-7 season under Paul Hackett, the expectations could not be that high for Carroll right out of the gate, and sure enough USC went just 6-6. But there were bright spots: Out of three early season losses to ranked opponents, the Trojans lost by just four points, two points, and three points. All of those teams were in the top 12. Oregon, the national runner-ups in 2001, needed a last second field goal to beat USC.
Then in the final regular season game, needing a win to get a bowl game, the Trojans beat 20th-ranked UCLA by a score of 27-0. Pete Carroll was in Southern Cal = defense was in Southern Cal. They lost the Las Vegas bowl 10-6 to Utah, but did allow just 37 total points in their final fourgames. After finishing 79th in scoring defense in 2000, USC ranked ninth in Carroll’s first season. The star of that defense? Safety Troy Polamalu, certainly. But not far behind, and the highest-drafted Trojan in the 2002 NFL Draft:
Cornerback Kris Richard.
The 2001 USC team was obviously not the one that Carroll had a chance to recruit. These were mostly the guys he was dealt by Hackett and few would go onto success like the players that Carroll would bring in over the next decade. However, something clearly clicked between Carroll and Richard, who coincidentally (now) became a third round pick of the Seattle Seahawks.
Richard spent six years in the NFL, mostly bouncing around, rarely playing, before ultimately coming to the conclusion that so many 20-something former pro athletes must come to: “I need to find a new job.” That led him back to USC as a graduate assistant in 2008, a year after the Trojans finished third in the AP poll and were looking to find their way back to a national championship.
That team finished 1st in points allowed, but a Week 3 Thursday night loss to Oregon State sealed their fate. Despite winning their next nine games, including three shutouts and two games of allowing 3 points, USC was held out of the national championship and sent to the Rose Bowl, where they beat number six Penn State 38-24. The BCS championship instead featured 12-1 Oklahoma vs 12-1 Florida, with Tim Tebow getting the better of Sam Bradford. We’ll never know if Mark Sanchez (but really: the Trojans defense) was more deserving of a shot at Florida but ... probably.
A year later, with Carroll and his staff beginning to get questions from the NCAA on potential violations, USC fell to 9-4 and relative mediocrity. In January of 2010, as you know, Carroll left college and went back to the pros. One of those going with him: Richard.
He spent the first year as assistant DBs coach, then was promoted to cornerbacks coach in 2011. From 2012-2014 he served as “Defensive Backs Coach” as the Seahawks made history centered around their secondary, which as we know now features anywhere from 2-3 future Hall of Famers. When the team lost Dan Quinn to the Atlanta Falcons, a few names for promotion came up, but Richard ultimately landed his first pro job as defensive coordinator, some 14 years after meeting Carroll, seven years after joining him at USC, and five years after his first assistant job in the NFL.
In 2015, Seattle’s defense ranked fourth in DVOA, including third against both the pass and the run.
In 2016, they ranked fifth, but fell to 13th against the pass and were third against the run.
But in 2017, with injuries to Cliff Avril, Kam Chancellor, and Richard Sherman, the Seahawks dropped to 13th overall, 13th against the pass, and 14th against the run. It’s still pretty impressive given the injuries, but Carroll must have felt pressure to do things differently as Seattle missed the playoffs for the first time since 2011.
Richard went to work as a defensive backs coach and passing game coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys, while the Seahawks re-hired Ken Norton, Jr to be the new defensive coordinator. (Richard and Norton both joined Carroll’s staff at USC the same year, both went with him to Seattle.) It seemed as though Carroll felt he was doing the best he could do for Richard while also trying to do the best he could for the Seahawks.
And maybe the best case scenario for both worlds really worked out.
As Seattle and Dallas prepare to face off this Saturday in the wild card round, the hottest name in the coaching circuit among them is not Brian Schottenheimer. It’s not Norton. It’s not Cowboys defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli. And it’s certainly not their offensive coordinator Scott Linehan. Nope. It’s Richard.
#Cowboys defensive play-caller Kris Richard has added another interview: The #Bucs, source said. That’ll happen after the game. So it’s the #Jets, #Dolphins & TB. A hot candidate.
In the season after getting (basically) fired, Richard is now getting immeasurable credit for turning Byron Jones into a Pro Bowl cornerback and getting increased value from slot cornerback Anthony Brown and perhaps safety Xavier Woods. He’s not the DC, but he’s the one guy on the staff that Dallas fans are dripping sweat over the idea of losing.
It seems as though they may have no choice.
Richard could be the third defensive coordinator under Carroll in Seattle to land a head coaching job after Gus Bradley and Quinn, which is impressive considering he’s only had four DCs with the Seahawks including his current one. Richard’s got options, but are any of them at this point, good?
The Jets have the most apparent upside at quarterback with Sam Darnold, plus a rising star safety in Jamal Adams, but plenty of work left to do as they lost nine of their last 10 games on the year. Is it possible that Tom Brady is finally at the end of his career? Or is the next New York head coach in line just the next one to fall in Bill Belichick’s wake?
Double goes for the Dolphins. They have some good DBs that Richard could covet — Minkah Fitzpatrick, Xavien Howard, Reshad Jones — but a lot of work left to do on the roster, including at quarterback. Consider this when looking for an opening at head coach: Does the team have a QB in place? Because there aren’t likely to be any good ones on the market or in the draft this year.
Finally, the Bucs have Jameis Winston, but is that a good thing or a bad thing? Tampa Bay has some talented players, but what are the odds that the Bucs will overtake Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and the Carolina Panthers in the NFC South next year? Or the year after?
For now, Richard can just focus on trying to stop Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, the team that let him go a year ago, before worrying about those questions. It’s the opportunity he’s been waiting for, and the opportunity that Carroll wanted him to have.
The NFL playoffs kick off this weekend, and after handing out picks during the regular season, I couldn't let you head into the postseason without me. So I'm back for the playoff run, and I'm bringing my remarkable record of 27-24 on the season with me. You never know, maybe I was saving my best run of the season for the playoffs.
Maybe I'm just like the 2011 New York Giants who went 9-7 during the regular season and beat the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI.
All we know at the moment is that I'll be making picks up until the Super Bowl, whether I get them right or not.
Watch Saturday's night game and Sunday's games on fuboTV, try it for free, and stream all the CBS games on CBS All Access.
Ravens (-3) vs. Chargers
The Chargers are the most public play of the weekend. As I type these words more than 70 percent of the bets that have been placed on this game have been placed on the Bolts. And there's good reason why. Los Angeles is a 12-4 team with a veteran quarterback. The Ravens are 10-6 and have rookie Lamar Jackson at the helm. Rookie QBs have not fared well in their playoff games, as CBSSports.com's John Breech went over this week. Since 2010 rookie QBs have gone 2-7 in playoff games, and both of those wins came in matchups against fellow rookie QBs. Against veteran QBs, they're 0-5.
Well, I'm going against that trend here. First of all, the fact the Chargers have to fly across the entire country to play a game at 1 p.m. ET and 10 a.m. PT could be a problem for them, just like it's been a problem for so many West Coast teams in the past. Furthermore, while rookie QBs may struggle in playoff games, Lamar Jackson is a little different. Jackson isn't going to be asked to throw the ball 30 times in this game. Baltimore's offense is something out of the early 20th century, and it matches up well with this Chargers defense. The Chargers are stronger defending the pass than they are the run, and it was only a few weeks ago that the Ravens came to L.A. to beat the Chargers 22-10. I believe the Ravens will get them again. Ravens 21, Chargers 17.
Watch the AFC Wild Card Game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Baltimore Ravens live right here on CBSSports.com.
Seahawks (+2.5) at Cowboys
You're going to have to excuse me if I have a hard time putting my money on the line with a team coached by Jason Garrett in a playoff game. Especially as the favorite. I know Dallas has been a much better team since trading for Amari Cooper, and that its defense is the real deal, but again: it's still a team coached by "The Clapper" himself, Jason Garrett. The key to this game will be whether or not the Dallas defense can stop the Seahawks run game. Dallas ranks fifth in the NFL in yards per carry allowed at 3.8 while Seattle's offense is also fifth at 4.8 yards per carry.
Like the Chargers-Ravens game, this is also a rematch. Dallas made the trip northwest to Seattle in Week 3 and got beat 24-13. The Cowboys turned the ball over three times and held Seattle to only 2.9 yards per carry. As I said earlier, Dallas has gotten a lot better since than, but you know what? So have the Seahawks. They come into this game having won six of seven. Four of their six losses have come against the Bears, Chargers and Rams (twice), three of the best teams in the NFL. Dallas shocked the world when it beat New Orleans, but seven of its 10 wins have come against teams with losing records. The only good teams it beat all season were the Saints and Eagles, and Philly only went 9-7. I think Seattle's the better team in this matchup, so I'll take the points. Seahawks 24, Cowboys 17.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence during the Wild Card Round? And which top Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.
Eagles (+6.5) at Bears
I saw a headline this week calling the Eagles the hottest team in the NFL. Philadelphia has won three straight and five of its last six. It heads to Chicago this weekend where it will meet a Bears team that has won four straight and nine of its last 10, with that sole loss coming without its starting QB. So maybe we should hold off on calling the Eagles the hottest team in the NFL.
Still, even if they might not be the hottest, they're quite dangerous. These are the defending champions we're talking about here, and they're facing a Bears team with a great defense, but also an offense led by a QB making his first career playoff start. Mitch Trubisky has been good for the Bears this season, but he's also had a tendency to turn the ball over at inopportune times. His defense usually bails him out when he does, but between the young QB, a shaky kicker in Cody Parkey, and a defense that may be great but has a tendency to get too conservative late in games, allowing opponents to close the gap, it's hard to pass up on nearly a touchdown here with Philly. Bears 20, Eagles 17. NEED TO KNOW MUST MORE INFO :
Will the Cowboys or Seattle Seahawks move forward in the NFC playoffs? The DallasCowboys.com staff gives their “gut feelings” for the 7:15 p.m. (Central) wild-card game at AT&T Stadium.
Lindsay Draper: It just seems like every time you count this team out for good, they show you why they’re here to stay. This wild-card matchup is playing out the same way. I’m not sure I’ve seen one national outlet or television network pick the Cowboys to win, which is why I’m doing just that. Sunday’s ‘meaningless’ victory over the Giants fostered comradery, trust, and momentum within the men in this locker room, regardless of where they fall on the depth chart. I believe their growth since training camp is something to commend. I believe that they are confident in themselves. They are confident despite still having definite inadequacies that come with being an inexperienced team. Going with a Cowboys win and advancement Saturday night (I hear you’re supposed to wear white) at AT&T Stadium.
Rob Phillips: I’ve been impressed with the way the Cowboys have played at home all year. The one exception was the hiccup against Tennessee, and since then, this offense has been much more efficient overall. And in Week 3, they had chances at Seattle until miscues put the game out of reach in the second half. Russell Wilson always presents a huge challenge, and these teams are so even that I expect the game to be decided in the final two minutes. Hey, that’s where Dak Prescott has thrived (14 career fourth-quarter comebacks already). Gut feeling: Cowboys advance in a pretty high-scoring battle.
Nick Eatman: Sometimes, you just have to throw logic out the window. Because logic really doesn’t lead to a pick for the Cowboys. I’ve seen Dallas play Seattle this year and it really wasn’t a close game. Sure, things are different now for both teams, but what we saw in September, the Seahawks were a better team. And honestly, I still think the Seahawks are a little better team right now. When it comes to quarterback play, Russell Wilson has won a Super Bowl and nearly another. Dak Prescott has never won a playoff game. Pete Carroll is a much more accomplished head coach than Jason Garrett, especially in the postseason. Add all of those things together and it doesn’t really warrant a pick for the Cowboys. Then again, being logical all year has led me to an 8-8 record in picking these games. Forget logic – let’s go with another stat, which is the Cowboys are 7-1 at home this year. I’ll ride with that and see if we can keep this season alive. It’ll be close, but I think the Cowboys’ defense finds a way to make a play. Give me Dallas, 17-16.
David Helman: How’s this for a bold proclamation? This game is going to come down to the final play. How could it not, given the seasons these teams have had? The Cowboys’ average margin of victory this season is just 7.7. They’ve had an absurd six games come down to the final snap. The Seahawks have fared a little bit better, but they’ve played in some nail biters themselves with an average margin of victory of just 10.9. Prepare yourselves for some drama. Fortunately for the Cowboys, they’ve been on the good side of that drama when they play at home, and I can see that happening again. I think Ezekiel Elliott will have a workmanlike performance, grinding out 95 yards and a touchdown. I don’t think Dak Prescott will be amazing, but he’ll make plays in the clutch. Russell Wilson is going to do his best to drag the Seahawks over the finish line, but Prescott will set Brett Maher up for a game-winner as time expires. Cowboys squeak out a 24-23 win.
Bryan Broaddus: This game could go either way. These teams are evenly matched and they should play that way. I feel like playing this game at AT&T Stadium is a huge advantage for the Cowboys. Playing at CenturyLink Field is no bargain. My gut feeling is that this game is going to come to the two quarterbacks. Both Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson are going to have to make some incredible plays in this game for their clubs to win. I like what I’ve seen from Prescott these previous eight weeks and he will make that one extra play to get his club to the next round. Cowboys win this one, 27-24.
Mickey Spagnola: This is a different Cowboys team than the one playing the Seahawks the third game of the season. This is a different Cowboys team than the one playing the Seahawks in Game 15 of last season. And no need to go back any further than that. Most of all, this is an improved Cowboys team. Top 7 on defense. One that has scored at least 27 points in five of the final eight games. And for heaven’s sake, do not underestimate the presence of Amari Cooper and his production over the final eight games. Lastly, a home game, indoors, loud and at night, with 90,000-plus having ample time to prepare for this one. Might even see them “jump around.” Soooo, Cowboys 23, Seahawks 21, the score that should have been in that 2006 season playoff game the Cowboys lost, 21-20, thanks to that first down at the one being reversed through video replay to fourth-and-one at the two in the waning two minutes of the games that led to the Tony Romo dropping the snap for potentially the game-winning field goal. This is a new day, baby.
